In the last several months we have seen a relatively painless run from the 76 handle on Usd/Jpy. A few days ago the new BOJ Governor, Kuroda says that they have ‘done all that is necessary and possible for now.’ I hear a comment like that and it gets my attention as it also grabs the attention of the market. If you notice that comment comes out just as USDJPY is testing and failing what many in the market feel ( and I agree) is at a huge technical level, 100.00 Remember this move from the 76 level was without a doubt hugely if not entirely driven by the premiss, the promises, and now the initial execution of a monumental BOJ policy shift to kick deflation in the ARSE. With that said the most recent comments from Kuroda about doing all that is necessary and possible for now appears to be potentially powerful enough considering the rapid and enormous rise we have experienced over the last 5 months, the massive build of expectations into Kuroda’s first BOJ meeting in which they delivered BIG TIME, combined now with the lack of answers as to what’s next, to potentially set up the Yen for a decent retrace.
At the end of this week on Friday we head into more BOJ events with both the meeting minutes and the press conference on deck. So as the Yen fights the fine fight with the 100.00 level, the catalysts for a break or breakdown in my opinion becomes the “whats next” phenomenon. I’m expecting the market to have big expectations from Kuroda and company again. Will they deliver again or disappoint? That will be debatable until we find out. If in fact they have “done all that they can for now” holds true then we could witness the first painful retracement that may not be as shallow as the previous ones during this rapid and massive move up and maybe we all get the opportunity to reload at very attractive prices. If they do deliver once again after getting the nod from the G20 meetings then say hello to the 100.00 and beyond. Should be fun either way. These are just some fundamental mumbo jumbo nuggets that I share with my colleagues and friends and in no way constitutes as trading advice. Its important to do your own analysis and trade your own plan. Make a great day and may we all make bank!!